Leo. A. Nefiodow, futurologist, Sankt Augustin
ARE WE WITHIN A LARGER ECONOMIC CRISIS?
The market economy knows no steady progress, but rather upturn and downturn, boom and recession alternate regularly. Short and medium
term economic fluctuations lasting from 3 to 11 years are generally well known. But long variations lasting from 40 to 60 years occur in the market economy, too. They are called Kondratieff cycles.
Crises appear as a matter of course in the market economy. They occur in the final phase of an economic cycle. Crises may last a few months and be limited to a few industries, but they may also extend over several years and influence the entire economy of a region or country.
The last great economic crisis occurred in the 1970s when the OPEC countries increased the crude oil price dramatically without giving the industrial countries time to adapt. This marked the downturn of the fourth Kondratieff cycle (figure 1).Serious crises occur especially in the transition bet...